July corn traded 3 3/4 cents lower overnight. Outside markets were lower and the dollar was higher overnight.

Corn broke sharply yesterday and fell again overnight. Traders and analysts indicate that the weakness has been due to a change in the weather forecast for much of the Midwest, which is expected to result in somewhat drier weather than traders expected late last week. Planting progress was 24% last week under less than ideal circumstances, and some traders are saying that the planting rate could exceed 25% this week, which would take us near normal levels on next week's Crop Progress Report. If that is the case, next week's total would be only 9% behind the 10-year average and only 3% behind the 20-year average. Last year we saw planting progress of more than 50% during a 2-week period. The weekly corn planting report showed 51% complete compared to 71% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 72%. The highest percent complete was 86% in 2004 while the lowest was 24% in 1993. The tender calendar is light and cash markets are quiet, in large part due to the fact that farmers are very busy planting this week. There were 279 deliveries this morning. Funds were noted sellers of near 5,000 contracts yesterday, and the trade is a bit concerned with the overbought technical condition of the market. Index funds continue to hold a massive net long in corn, and trend-following fund traders (as of May 6th) held a net long position of 172,939 contracts.

The forecast for this week is generally drier than was thought late last week. Rains are expected in the extreme western Corn Belt today. Tomorrow should see rains across much of Illinois and parts of Indiana, with a band of showers extending south/southwest into Arkansas. Thursday should see rains south of central Illinois with dry weather expected in most growing areas into the weekend. Forecast rainfall totals may be about 1/2 inch less than previously forecast and more scattered. No new tenders. Turkey is tendering for 150,000 tonnes of corn.