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Soybean Complex Market Recap for 9/30/2008

November Soybeans finished down 49 at 1045, 51 off the high and 6 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 48 1/4 at 1062 1/4. This was 5 3/4 up from the low and 50 1/2 off the high.

December Soymeal closed down 16.4 at 285.0. This was 1.5 up from the low and 18.2 off the high.

December Soybean Oil finished down 0.95 at 44.48, 0.87 off the high and 0.63 up from the low.

The soybean market opened lower following a Quarterly Grain Stocks Report that was considered bearish for soybeans. Funds were fairly heavy sellers on the last trading day of the Third Quarter which analysts note is often a day of heavier fund activity. Some weather forecasts call for scattered and light nighttime frosts later this week in the Midwest, but this is not expected to result in measurable damage to the maturing soybean crop. The 6-10 day forecast calls for increased moisture in the western soybean belt, but dry conditions in the east. Meal lost sharply to oil on the day, continuing the trend of recent days. Statistics Canada will release its production estimates for canola Thursday morning before the open. The USDA pegged US soybean stocks as of September 1st at 205 million bushels, well above the recent USDA forecast of 140 million bushels and much higher than the trade estimates near 145 million. The USDA revised their 2007 crop production forecast to 2.676 billion bushels, which was 91 million bushels above the previous estimate. This sparked the higher than expected stocks number. If this is counted as the beginning stocks number for the 2008/09 season and all other factors left unchanged, ending stocks as of September 1st, 2009 would be adjusted up to 200 million bushels from the 135 million bushels posted on last month's S&D Report.




 
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