November soybeans were 22 cents higher overnight. Malaysian palm oil finished up just 0.8% today after trading higher earlier in the session. Crude oil was sharply higher overnight and the dollar was sharply lower.
The soybean complex is starting today with a setup that is similar to yesterday: higher crude and a much weaker dollar. The added ingredient yesterday was a more vigorous rally in stock markets, which obviously gained momentum as the day wore on. Stocks were higher again overnight, but more moderately. Intervention to support financial markets is starting to take form, and it is expected to start with government's buying stakes in banks. Yesterday's higher closes saw a sharp gain by meal over oil, as funds bought oil and traded on both sides in meal. Funds were also buyers in soybeans. Farmers are said to still be light sellers of newly harvested soybeans so far, and that continued to support basis levels to start the week yesterday. Weather is expected to slow harvest a bit in Missouri and southern Iowa today, with much more general rain tomorrow. Frost is possible later this week in the north central and NE Midwest. Chinese customs data showed that soybean imports hit another record in September, rising 8% to 4.13 million tonnes. Actual import numbers from China have tended to contradict the drumbeat of negativity from cash market traders since the Olympics. They have regularly referred to China as being overbooked with soybeans and unlikely to buy heavily due to oversupply of vegetable oil and low crush margins. Egypt is tendering to buy 25,000 tonnes of soybean oil and 9,000 tonnes of sunseed oil. Iran has reportedly passed on bids for 20,000 to 25,000 tonnes of soybean oil. Crop Progress reports will be released this afternoon, and grain inspections will be out after the open. These are one day late due to the Columbus Day Holiday.
Rains are expected in Michigan, Missouri and south central Iowa today with more extensive rains tomorrow extending from the central Plains to Ohio and falling generally north of the Ohio River. The bigger story is the below normal temps that are expected to dip into the north central and NE Midwest later this week. Right now this looks like a frost event. A slight warm up this weekend may be followed by more cold temperatures, especially later next week. No new export tenders are scheduled.