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Pre-Opening Corn Market Report for 11/21/2008

March corn was 4 1/2 cents higher overnight. Crude oil made another minor new low overnight and then staged a very modest recovery. The dollar was sharply lower.

March corn took out its October and November lows yesterday and made another new low for the move overnight. This came against a backdrop of heavy liquidation in US equities for the second session in a row yesterday. Funds were sellers yesterday in grains and in a broad spectrum of other commodity markets as well. Traders and analysts say that economic concerns are paramount at the end of the trading week with corn traders especially concerned about eroding demand and ideas that 2008/09 ending stocks will be ample when all is said and done. It is also apparent that current price levels still give many farmers a paper profit on next year's crop, even if fertilizer and chemical costs remain near their current high levels. With additional acres coming out of the Conservation Reserve Program by next spring and some analysts looking at lower soft red acres, this is leading some traders to expect an increase in corn acres next year. Yesterday's export sales tended to confirm the weak demand outlook for corn. Net sales for corn were 433,800 tonnes, all for the current marketing year. As of November 13, cumulative sales stand at 37.0% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 versus a 5 year average of 42.9%. Sales need to average 729,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. Sales have been running well below that level since mid October.

The Plains and Midwest are still expected to remain dry today and tomorrow with the exception of snow today in eastern Ohio. Most areas are expected to be dry into Sunday although rain is expected in the SE corn and soybean belt with coverage expanding and moving east into Monday. Forecasts in South America are mainly the same. Dry conditions are starting to cause some concern in Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil and stressful dryness persists in central growing areas of Argentina.




 
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