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Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 11/19/2008

March wheat was unchanged overnight. The dollar was lower.

Wheat finished lower yesterday after a mid session rally failed. Prices were unchanged in a very narrow range in the March contract overnight. Demand remains moderate to light for US wheat with traders indicating that most demand is from Asia at this point. Harvest continues in Australia and Argentina with both crops down from expectations at the start of the growing season. However, traders in Australia report that the flow of grain from farmers into export channels in the western wheat belt is much lighter than expected and that this is causing at least one exporter to scramble to fill arriving ships. Some private forecasters are looking at reduced world wheat acreage in 2009 due to low prices and expensive inputs. Acreage in the US is expected to be lower for soft red winter wheat and unchanged to higher for hard red winter. The Philippines have lifted their import tariff on wheat for six months.

Weather conditions remain about the same in the Southern Hemisphere with central Argentina still dry and Australia seeing scattered rains in the west with minor harvest delays. The US is still expected to be dry through the weekend in most grain areas, but temperatures are expected to be a bit colder than previously forecast into Friday and Saturday in the central and northern Midwest. Snow is still expected in the extreme northern and NE Midwest into the weekend. Rain is expected to move into the SW Plains on Saturday and Sunday with showers pushing through the central Midwest early next week. Bangladesh is tendering for 100,000 tonnes of wheat with a closing date of December 15th. Jordan bought 50,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia. This comes on a tender for 150,000 tonnes.




 
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