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Soybean Complex Market Recap for 3/27/2008

May Soybeans finished down 24 3/4 at 1327 1/4, 24 1/2 off the high and 1 3/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 36 at 1208 1/2. This was 1 1/2 up from the low and 36 off the high.

May Soymeal closed down 6.7 at 348.8. This was 1.0 up from the low and 8.7 off the high.

May Soybean Oil finished down 0.27 at 57.48, 0.82 off the high and 0.69 up from the low.

The May soybean contract opened lower and gradually firmed into the early mid session. Prices retreated after 10:00, however, and traded in a narrow range for the rest of the session before closing near the lows of the day. Oil generally led the complex today despite a late sell off. Oil's mid session gains came on much higher than expected export sales according to one floor trader as well as profit taking by traders who have bought meal and sold oil in recent sessions. Volume was light to moderate in the soybean complex as we get closer to the all-important Planting Intentions and Quarterly Grains Stocks Reports on Monday. The strike in Argentina is still on, but the spillover effects seem less dramatic today according to one floor trader with Gulf bids mainly steady amid light demand. Funds have also been largely absent from most pits today according to traders. Daily trading limits will expand tomorrow for soybeans and oil, but not for meal. Soybean limits will increase from 50 cents to 70 cents and oil limits will increase from 2.00 cents to 2.50 cents. Export sales and US census crush were out this morning. Weekly export sales for soybeans were 532,300 tonnes, well above trade expectations. Old crop sales were 369,600 tonnes with 42,400 tonnes in new sales needed each week to reach the USDA projection. Cumulative sales are at 96.5% of the USDA forecast compared with a 5-year average of 89.9%. China was the largest buyer of soybeans at 239,900 tonnes. Meal sales were at the high end of expectations at 178,800 tonnes. Old crop sales were 156,800 tonnes compared to 92,500 tonnes necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. France was the largest buyer at 30,000 tonnes. Oil sales were 42,000 tonnes, all old crop, which was well above expectations and compares with 9,800 tonnes necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. Total sales have reached 75.4% of the USDA forecast compared with 51% as the 5-year average sold for this time of the year. The US Census Crush for February came in at 146.4 million bushels versus 136.9 million a year ago and 134.3 as the 5-year average. The cumulative crush of 938.3 million bushels is running at 51.1% of the USDA projection for the entire marketing year. This compares with the 5-year average pace for this time of year at 51.8%. The US Soybean Oil stocks for the end of February came in well below expectations at 2.681 billion pounds versus 3.061 billion the previous month and 3.281 billion a year ago. Stock levels are currently running at 18.3% below a year ago versus the USDA projection calling for stocks to eventually climb to 14.1% below a year ago by the end of the season. Basis levels at the Gulf were called steady this morning with few bids despite the shift of demand from Argentina.




 
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