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Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report for 7/23/2008

November soybeans were 36 1/2 cents lower overnight. Malaysian palm oil was down nearly 7%. Crude oil was lower overnight and the dollar was higher.

Soybeans posted a higher finish yesterday after early weakness, but the entire complex traded sharply lower overnight and finished that session near its lows. Malaysia was a major factor in the break according to traders who said that traders there may be giving up on expectations of a surge in demand ahead of Ramadan in September. The palm oil market has also been hit by the lowering of Indonesia's export tax for August yesterday and a delay in the start of a mandate for bio-diesel production in Malaysia itself. Soybeans were also being influenced by the powerful ongoing liquidation break in corn with some traders concerned that investors are quitting the commodity sector in general in favor of stocks. Crude oil moved to a new low overnight as well, weighing on soy oil and soybeans and traders say that the resolution of the farm crisis in Argentina is also an ongoing weight on the market. Cash markets remain quiet in the US with farmers continuing to hold onto old crop supplies according to market sources. However, some cash traders are concerned that continued weakness will loosen their resolve to hold.

Weather overnight was about as expected. Most of the soybean belt has been dry over the past 24-36 hours with the exception of Missouri. Over the next 7 days, above normal moisture is expected in a wide band that runs from central South Dakota through NE Nebraska, the southeastern half of Missouri, central and southern Illinois and southern Indiana and Ohio. Areas to the northeast and southwest of this band should be dry. Above normal temperatures are expected across most major growing areas starting at the end of July and running for at least a week into August. This should occur during a period of vulnerability for soybeans. Northern portions of the Delta are expected to get some relief from rain today with more scattered rain in the NW and SE Delta tomorrow. Mississippi should see better rains with general coverage on Saturday and Sunday. No tenders are scheduled for soybeans.




 
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