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Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 7/25/2008

December wheat finished 2 3/4 cents higher overnight. The dollar was lower.

Like corn, wheat has traded in successively narrower ranges with yesterday's trade staying within Wednesday's range and overnight trade staying within Thursday's range. Funds were very light sellers in wheat yesterday. Some harvest areas in the northern Plains were wet again over the past 24-36 hours, but harvest continues. Soft red harvest is wrapping up and heavy rains overnight were mostly south of those areas that remain to be harvested. Export sales were very strong again in wheat this week with net sales at 610,000 tonnes. Total sales to date stand at a very strong 41.2% of the projected total compared to a 5-year average of 27.4%. Sales of soft red (Chicago) wheat were heavy at 225,900 tonnes versus 206,100 tonnes for hard red wheat. Major destinations were Mexico for hard red wheat and Egypt, followed by Mexico for soft red wheat. Basis levels were mixed yesterday for soft red wheat and they remain near historic lows. While sales are strong, a bigger US crop and expectations for a surge in wheat production in the Black Sea area to compete with US wheat ahead has the market keeping a bearish tilt on world fundamentals. The lack of a serious weather problem this year from all of the key wheat exporters is also seen as a negative force.

Nebraska and South Dakota saw scattered moderate to heavy rains over the past 24 hours. Rains are expected to continue over the next week, starting in the central Plains and gradually moving to the northern extreme by mid week. Remaining soft red harvest areas may see some rain today, but are expected to remain dry starting tomorrow and into next week. Dry areas of the western spring wheat belt should see general coverage over the weekend. Algeria is tendering for 50,000 tonnes of wheat. Syria has reissued a tender for 120,000 tonnes of soft wheat, the first major buying tender in 15 years by that country. Oman is in for 120,000 tonnes at the end of July. Pakistan is tendering for 250,000 tonnes of wheat to boost buffer stocks.




 
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