November soybeans were 1 cent lower overnight. Malaysian palm oil was down almost 6% overnight, and weakness in crude oil and the stock market added to the negative tone.
Yesterday was a rally day, at least to start. However, traders said that buy orders thinned out at higher levels, and a late break in crude oil was followed by a sell-off to new lows for the day. Initial gains by meal over oil on the early rally were wiped out on the break. Palm oil sales continue to be a leader to the downside. A private surveyor put October 1-15 exports of Malaysian palm oil down more than 9% from the previous month, and this was said to contribute to the sharp overnight decline in palm futures. Traders said that the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) had a negative effect on prices yesterday, especially for soy oil. The September crush was 120.4 million bushels, slightly below trade expectations. Oil stocks were higher than expected at 1.988 billion pounds. The weekly soybean harvest report showed 51% complete compared to 31% last week and 61% last year. This was in line with expectations. Soybeans were at 57% good/excellent, the same as last year. Weekly export inspections for soybeans were out yesterday after the open. The soybean total was 13.2 million bushels. Cumulative inspections are lagging a bit to start the year at 4.5% of the projected total versus a 5-year average of 8.9%. Brazil officials indicate that 5% of the soybean crop is planted in the key growing state of Mato Grosso versus an average of 2%. China's cumulative soybean imports for January through September, 2008 stand at 29.7 million tonnes, up 32.2% from the same period in 2007. Sources in Brazil report that fertilizer purchases there are running sharply behind the normal rate for this time of year. Basis levels at the Gulf were under pressure yesterday for nearby delivery due to the arrival of late-harvested Delta soybeans.
Rain is expected today north of a line running from about Cleveland to St. Louis. This is expected to push through the remainder of the eastern and SE corn and soybean growing areas tomorrow bringing lower temperatures and a slight chance of frost in the north. No new export tenders are scheduled. Egypt bought 20,000 tonnes of soy oil yesterday.