July corn traded 1 3/4 cents higher overnight. Outside markets were mixed with the dollar higher.
Old crop and new crop contracts made new all-time highs on both Thursday and Friday last week but traded just below those highs overnight. The USDA projected next year's yield at just below trendline on its latest Supply/Demand Report on Friday. This was in acknowledgement of the effects of the wet, cool spring and late planting. Old crop ending stocks were pegged at 1.383 billion bushels compared to 1.283 billion bushels last month. However, for the 2008/09 season, ending stocks were dropped to just 763 million bushels. Beginning stocks were revised higher by 100 million bushels for 2008/09 due to a decline in ethanol demand to 3.0 billion bushels for the current season, but ethanol demand is expected to jump to 4.0 billion next year. The USDA also assumes a 400 million bushel decline in corn exports for the coming season and an 850 million bushel decline in feed usage. World corn ending stocks for the 2007/08 season were pegged at 109.69 million tonnes vs. 102.97 million tonnes last month. New crop (2008/09) ending stocks were pegged at just 99.03 million tonnes, and the 10 million tonne drawdown in ending stocks drives the world corn stocks/usage to just 12.6%. This is the lowest world ending stocks since 1983 and the lowest stocks/usage ratio since 1973. The Commitments of Traders Report for the week ending May 6th showed mixed trade by funds and selling by small traders. Trend following funds were net buyers of 13,024 contracts, while index funds sold 9,008 contracts. Small traders sold 9,919 contracts. Deliveries against the May contract today were 499 contracts. April exports of corn from China were just 30,000 tonnes, down 95% from last year. Traders expect tonight's weekly crop update to show that near half of the crop is now planted as compared with 71% last year and 72% as the 10-year average for this time of the year.
Heavy rains over the weekend along with cool temperatures have slowed planting again, but the forecast for this week may be slightly drier than previously forecast. The extreme west central and northwest Corn Belt should see rains tomorrow with the central belt seeing rains from the extreme north to the extreme south tomorrow. Turkey is tendering for 150,000 tonnes of corn.